My Phillies Outlook

Thursday, November 1, 2007 ·

What, I'd like to see the Phillies do:

I'd like to see them bring back Aaron Rowand. His best splits fall in our ballpark and he is a 'Philly guy'. The problem is his reported contract desires. 6 years, 84 million seems to be a little much. I'd love to sign him to a deal similar to Eric Byrnes. I'd even consider keeping him to a 4 year, 48. Is he a 12 million player? No, but he's looking to become the highest paid Philly and the Phillies front office shouldn't and will not do that. I can understand him for leaving if he gets a bigger deal, but he can also see the Phillies point of view for not retaining him.

Whether they let Rowand walk or re-sign him, I think they have to retain Pat Burrell. I understand his value his higher than normal right now, but I don't know if a trade will warrant a worthy return at the moment. A likely Burrell trade would be for pitching and he'd have to approve it. (thanks Mr. Wade). His defense isn't the greatest, but he's the right handed power bat they still need...and he still kills the Mets.

Now, before they consider adding a third baseman, which they do need desperately, they need pitching more.

Linebrink, Rivera, Cordero, Romero are all possibilities. Pitching costs are inflated now, largely to the Adam Eaton contract from last year, and it is not me saying this, but a majority of baseball GMs and owners have stated the same thing. There is a misconception among the Phillies fan base that the signing of a closer will move Myers back to the rotation. The reality is the Myers doesn't want to go back. Manuel doesn't want to put him back. Gillick doesn't want to put him back. Because of this, I think we can likely scratch out Rivera. The Phillies still have Tom Gordon under contract, who will likely be the set-up man. So I think we can scratch out Cordero too. I expect the Phillies to re-sign Alfonseca and I expect them to make a run at Linebrink and Romero (though sides are apart right now). Romero wants to stay, but I think the Phillies want his market value to be determined before they make a move. I can also consider them looking at a guy like Matt Herges. If they do not re-sign Romero, they do need to find a left-handed reliever and I am not sure there is much out there.

Starting pitching. Right now, the Phillies have 3-4 guys in their rotation.Cole Hamels, open, open/Kendrick, Moyer, Kendrick/Eaton/Open. The Phillies really need to acquire sign another top starter to give the Phillies a 1-2 punch with Hamels. The most talked about possible acquisition has been Schilling. If Schilling is looking for a 1 year, 13 million deal, the Phillies have to jump on it. I know Schilling is not the same pitcher he used to be and his numbers may have declined, but I think he'll benefit from weaker National League lineups and will be a nice veteran fit along with Moyer to continue to teach Hamels and Kendrick. Also, the 1 year deal is perfect because the Phillies have some pitching talent down there, but they're still at least a year away from being regular contributers.

Other possible options are re-signing Kyle Lohse than Carlos Silva. I rather have Silva more than Lohse and Silva is a guy that I wish we never traded to minny for Eric Milton. The good news is the Lieber is gone. The other good news is that the Phillies pitching staff can really not get that much worse, they can only go up.The Phillies really need Kendrick to repeat his success from last year. I hope he remains healthy though as he'll be finally pitching a full season.The Phillies could also look at JA Happ and top prospect Carlos Carrassco.

Now 3B...I'm not sure what to do here.They have 2 of/1b playing third base right now in Helms and Dobbs. Helms is bad offensively and defensively. Dobbs is a good left-handed fastball hitter, but he struggles against LH pitching and off-speed stuff. Also, he's not going to make any great plays at third base. The Free Agent outlook is not very good...the only guys that look appealing are Pedro Feliz and Mike Lamb.The Phillies are fine right now at just about every other position. They could use another bat as a pinch hitter, likely an outfielder if they lose Rowand, as it'll leave them with only 4 outfielders on the roster.

Other reports see them trading Victorino or Bourn for pitching...I'm not sure if it is worth sacrificing speed and defense when both those players are not going to bring in a grade B or above pitcher.

Sorry that the post was so long. I've yet to find an option that allows me to cut the post into a read more section.


Roose13 said...
November 1, 2007 at 9:39 PM  

Good outlook. I think this is a high possibility. Not a bad future but it all makes sense.

Anonymous said...
November 1, 2007 at 11:03 PM  

they can't trade shane. they can't.

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