Super Bowl XLIII Prediction

Yes I'm very upset that for the 4th time in 5 trips to the NFC Championship game, the Eagles failed to win one more to at least get a Super Bowl bid. Joining the Rams, Buccaneers, and Panthers, the Cardinals became the next team to get in Philly's way. Now there is one team standing in Arizona's way, Pittsburgh. Yes the Pittsburgh Steelers from day one in my mind have been the best team in football. My preseason Super Bowl pick was Minnesota vs Pittsburgh. When the season ended, it was Carolina vs Pittsburgh. I was so sure last week it would be an all PA Super Bowl but that was obviously foiled. I am still confident that the Steelers will win the Super Bowl, and win it soundly. Unlike the Cardinals opponents in Atlanta, Carolina, and Philly, Pittsburgh's defense does not have bad days.

Arizona does have a very good quarterback. In my opinion, Kurt Warner is Hall of Fame bound. He has 3 great receivers ot throw to in Anquan Boldin, Steve Breaston, and the best WR in the game, Larry Fitzgerald. If Arizona wants ot have a prayer, the offensive line will have to hold up and allow Warner to get the ball in the hands of his weapons. Pittsburgh's pass defense is very nasty. Dick LeBeau is the best defensive coordinator in the game and he will throw so many blitz packages at Warner that it will look like the 3rd quarter of the NFC Championship game. You still have to look out for Troy Polamalu. He is fucking dangerous!

Pittsburgh's offense is very good as well. They may not be as talented on paper as Philly's and sure is not as dangerous as Arizona's, but Ben Rothlisberger knows how to lead a team. He still has Hines Ward, Heath Miller, and Willie Parker but no Jerome Bettis. He does, though, have Santonio Holmes, the Steelers deep threat. Ben also has Nate Washington. It will all come down to the running game. Willie Parker is healthy and he can run again. Rothlisberger's performance will depend on the run game.

It's gonna be a long day for Arizona. Pittsburgh will become the first team to win 6 Super Bowls as they roll over Arizona 31-17.

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Conference Game Predictions

I’m here at the liquor store bored so I figured I’d contemplate my picks now for the AFC/NFC Championship games. In the AFC, it’s the Steelers versus the Ravens in Pittsburgh and in the NFC it’s our beloved Eagles versus the Cardinals in Arizona. Yes it’s a shock to the rest of the NFL world that the Cards are not only playing in the Championship game but they are the home team but to them it isn’t a surprise. Their offense is showing shades of Kurt Warner’s “Greatest Show on Turf” in St. Louis 7 years ago and I think they are actually better but we’ll get into more depth when I get to that game. The two games after the jump:

We’ll start with the night cap. One of the nastiest rivalries in the NFL is Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Baltimore’s defense is just nasty in the turnovers department while Pittsburgh won’t let you run for the life of them. You also can’t forget about Troy Polamalu running around. He has no problem putting his helmet in your chest if you aren’t looking. The problem with Baltimore’s defense is that they have allowed more first downs than earned, by a lot. In their 2 games, opponents have gotten 39 first downs, 27 through the air. If the Ravens can’t get a good rush on Ben Rothleisberger, he will light up the secondary. The Ravens have given up 533 passing yards to Chad Pennington and Kerry Collins combined and Big Ben is a much better quarterback then those 2. When Pittsburgh’s offense gets rolling, there is no stopping them like in the San Diego game. The Steelers defense only gave up 15 first downs against the Chargers, 1 on the ground. Baltimore will have to move the ball in the air with a rookie quarterback if they want to get down field. If LeRon McClain can establish himself as a running back that can control the game, now is the time. If he doesn’t, Baltimore’s defense will be on the field a lot and they will give up points. I say Pittsburgh wins it 27-10.

Now it’s on to the Eagles. This honestly should be no contest. It’s Arizona, who is playing the best football the franchise has ever seen since the merger but it’s still Arizona. They have a good offense but the defense doesn’t scare me. I think the score will be similar to Thanksgiving when Philly won 48-20. The Eagles offense hasn’t been clicking like it was in Dallas but that defense has been relentless on the ground, on the rush, and in the air. Warner isn’t mobile and his line will allow Jim Johnson’s blitz scheme to take full advantage of them. Asante Samuel is in a familiar position, making big plays in the post season and he will make another one Sunday afternoon. Brian Dawkins is playing every game like it’s his last and he is easily the hungriest player on the team for the Super Bowl, followed by Donovan McNabb. Edgerin James is a very good running back but he is no Brandon Jacobs or Adrian Peterson. He will get shut down. Anquan Boldin is a game time decision and it doesn’t look good for him. Larry Fitzgerald is amazing but he can’t do it all by himself. It was a good run for Arizona but it’s ending here. Eagles win it big, 41-21.

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Divisional Round Predictions - Sunday

OK so I missed the Saturday games but I got 'em right in my money pools. So now I'm gonna post my picks for the Sunday games. I'll start with the Sunday nighter in Pittsburgh. The Charger's who snuck in with an 8-8 record, which was good enough to win them the pathetic AFC West. They rolled all over the hot Colts last week, being carried by Darrien Sproles. I honestly don't see him being able to carry the Chargers again versus the toughest run defense in the NFL. He will just get man-handled. Pittsburgh's offense has been the opposite of what the name calls it, especially with Ben Rothleisberger and Willie Parker not being 100% and a weak O-Line. I still see the Steelers winning this in another defensive struggle, 13-6.

In our day game at 1PM, the Eagles go to the Meadowlands to play the Giants. They are the only team to win in New York this and they honestly can do it again. It's easy; get pressure on Eli Manning and shut down Brandon Jacobs, who is obviously no Adrian Peterson. If the defense plays like they did versus Minnesota and the offense keeps the Giants defense on the field, this game is theirs. They have to play like they did in Week 14 when they won 20-14. Control the clock and pound the offense. Use Correll Buckhalter more, run the ball, and re-issue the screen game. Donovan McNabb needs to spread the field latterly so he can attack vertically. This should be either very pleasing or very disappointing. Eagles by 10.

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Divisional Round Predictions

I'll give my today's picks now and tomorrow's night cap and then a detailed analysis of the Eagles game later tonight. I went 2-2 last week, winning on Sunday only.

The first game will be Baltimore at Tennessee. Both team's have excellent defenses but Tennessee's offense is slightly better. Both have good rookie RB's in the Ravens' LeRon McClain and the Titans' Chris Johnson but Tennessee has the experience at QB with Kerry Collins, who played in the Super Bowl in 2000 when Baltimore shellacked the Giants. Ravens rookie Joe Flacco was in high school watching that game. Collins might get the eye of the tiger or something. Titans are my pick.

The night cap should be a blow out but likely won't. Arizona travels to Carolina in the battle of offenses; Arizona's in the air and Carolina's on the ground. Kurt Warner is working on his Arizona version of the Greatest Show on Turf and Jake Delhomme has DeAngelo Williams and Jonathon Stewart to run all over the Cards weak run defense. The Cards held Michael Turner to less than 3 yards a carry last week but like strength in numbers, it's hard to contain 2 different backs. Also Carolina's defense is very good. Carolina by 9.

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Wild Car Predictions.

Well I'm posting this too late but I had Atlanta beating Arizona and Indianapolis beating San Diego today. I already lost the Atlanta game and right now Indy is up 17-14 going into the 4th quarter. So hear are my picks for tomorrow's games. The first game will be at 1:00 and it's Baltimore in Miami. The second will be our beloved Eagles playing at 4:30 in Minnesota. Picks after the jump.

Baltimore (11-5) @ Miami (11-5) - This should almost be a low scoring game between 2 very strong defenses. Baltimore's D is just unstoppable, especially versus the run. Ray Lewis is still a nasty human being and can deliver a hit to knock the ball loose. He's the heart of that defense. Miami's D is led by Joey Porter, who racked up 20 sacks this year. He can put a ton of pressure on rookie quarter back Joe Flacco. Speaking of Flacco, he played very well in leading the Ravens to a playoff berth with 14 TD's and almost 3000 yards. He was supported heavily by rookie LeRon McClain who rushed for over 1000 yards. Miami found a leader in newly acquired Chad Pennington, who was dumped by the Jets when Brett Favre went there. They are supported by a solid run attack with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. Pennington found a target in Greg Camarillo who will line up against Samari Rolle of Baltimore. Baltimore's secondary can shut down Miami and their vicious run defense should be able to contain Brown and Williams. The Ravens are my pick.

Now to Philly and Minny, the big game for us fans.

The Offense: The Eagles are coming into the playoffs 4-1 and riding the emotions of a 44-6 pounding of Dallas last Sunday. If Donovan McNabb can find his recievers like in that game and Westbrook can run on the defensive line of Minny, it should be an easy game for Philly. The Vikings have a very underated secondary that's led by Antoine Winfield and Darren Sharper. The Eagles injured oline will have to keep the unrelated Kevin and Pat Williams in check. They will be giving Jamal Jackson, Todd Herramins, and Nick Cole a battle all day. Jared Allen will line up against Tra Thomas mainly and he will try to put McNabb on his back.

The Defense: This is gonna be very interesting. We all know Tavaris Jackson sucks but he can also move. They had a slightly tough time with Jason Cambell two weeks ago and Jackson is a better athlete. He can't throw but he can buy time with his legs. If Jimmy Johnson turns up the heat, mistakes will be made by the young and inexperienced QB. The real story though will be if the run defense can shut down Adrian Peterson. He is the best running back in the league and he can be dangerous on the ground and in the air. Shut him down and force Minny to throw and this will be an easy win. The secondary match up will be Asante Samuel versus Bernard Berrian, who is a deep threat. Brian Dawkins will help him a lot in covering Berrian.

In all honesty, this should be easy for Philly if they play like they did versus Dallas. My score: Eagles 31-9.

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2008 Phillies Prediction

Opening day is upon us and it is time for our pre-season predictions.
Record: 87-75, 2nd in division, 2nd in wildcard race
Rotation:
Brett Myers - 15-9, 3.95 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Cole Hamels - 17-7, 3.45 ERA, 1.10 WHIP
Jame Moyer - 14-11, 4.65 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
Kyle Kendrick - 12-9, 4.45 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
Adam Eaton - 12-12, 5.10 ERA, 1.45 WHIP
Bullpen:
Pitcher with lowest ERA - Ryan Madson - 2.55 ERA
Pitcher with highest ERA - Tom Gordon - 5.10 ERA
Most Wins - Ryan Madson - 6
Most Saves - Brad Lidge - 34, 6 blown saves
Lineup:
SS Jimmy Rollins - .285 avg, .340 obp, .525 slg, 25 hr, 85 rbi, 135 r, 40 sb
CF Shane Victorino - .280 avg, .350 obp, .410 slg, 10 hr, 45 rbi, 95 r, 50 sb
2B Chase Utley - .325 avg, .400 obp, .570 slg, 28 hr, 110 rbi, 110 r, 15 sb
1B Ryan Howard - .295 avg, .410 obp, .635 slg, 51 hr, 140 rbi, 105 r, 1 sb
LF Pat Burrell - .260 avg, .375 obp, .500 slg, 32 hr, 100 rbi, 80 r
RF Geoff Jenkins - .270 avg, .350 obp, .490 slg, 20 hr, 60 rbi, 45 r, 3 sb
3B Pedro Feliz - .260 avg, .300 obp, .450 slg, 20 hr, 75 rbi, 60 r, 2 sb
C Carlos Ruiz - .285 avg, .360 obp, .425 slg, 10 hr, 70 rbi, 55 r, 8 sb
Bench:
OF Jayson Werth - .275 avg, .360 obp, 10 hr, 45 rbi, 35 r, 15 sb
Last year, the Phillies pinch-hitters tied for the fourth most RBIs by pinch-hitters in the last half century with 56. If our bench could somehow find similar production that would be huge for a team often finding themselves in late-inning battles.

I am really not sold on the back-end of our rotation. I was rather generous with my predictions for Moyer, Kendrick, and Eaton, but I really think they're the near-optimal results. I really like Kendrick's composure, but his stuff is not a real selling point. I think Moyer's age got to him last year, though he had a few great starts over the final weeks of the season and the playoffs. If he could pitch like ten years prior, that could be a huge boost for a questionable rotation.

The bullpen also has question marks, especially with Tom Gordon's horrible, sorry, pathetic spring. Thankfully, he comes off the books this year. Ryan Madson seems poised for another good year out of the bullpen. His pitching may truly make or break this season. Brad Lidge should be back by next weekend and all signs looked good. Lidge's slider is working again and a dominating closer will be clutch for the Phillies. The good news for the Phillies is that the Mets bullpen is not much better and unless their rotation throws all complete games, the Phillies should be able to knock them off again.

Year after year, the Phillies battle injuries with the pitching staff. If this proves to be a healthy year, the Phillies might be able to take over the division.

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